- Service: MUNI, Bus, Caltrain
- Time of day: rush hour, versus the "second" morning train, versus middle of the day, versus weekend...
- Stop you get on / off at (can't go to the back if the bus will fill up just after your stop and not empty by the time you need off)
- Specific seat configuration: The seattle caltrain cars have weird split level, always facing someone seats, where the japan-style cars have the up-top "onesies"
This all translates into one giant mental map. Service and destination gives you optimal times which yields likely available seats. Personal preference to avoid socialization and cramped-ness at basically any cost gives us an order of preference. Onesies always beat potential people facers. Leg room trumps proximity to horrid smelling bathroom (actually "the hell away from bathroom" could be its own category). Warmth beats access to exits. The rules are simple and finite; like poker only you're gambling for comfort with no chance of actually winning anything.
Theoretically I can traverse this decision course in the ...oh... 30 seconds or so between the time I get to a vehicle and the time the people behind me start grunting impatiently for me to "sit the f' down". But there are always kinks in the chain.
...Is it better to catch the baby bullet and risk standing for 45 minutes or wait an extra 15 and be guaranteed a singlet seat? Dunno. Depends on whether or not I have morning meetings and whether I went to the gym the night before.
...Will the bus on Wednesday be crowded enough to fill those otherwise oh-so-comfy sideways seats?
...How many old people are likely to get on between stop X and destination Y? Can I chance the "reserved for seniors and people with disabilities" section? Well...how much stuff am I carrying?
...Is there a Giants game? Pretty much all bets are off and its time to throw elbows for Giants games. Damn drunk people.
And all that doesn't even take into consideration those things you can't really decide on until the very last second. The "Weird Smelly People, Creepy Chatty Guy, Rotten Banana on the Seat" factor. For all that mental optimization and rules developement there's a definite bent of "the best laid plans..." to riding public transportation. I guess systems, even finely tuned, over-thought-out ones, are not really such if they can't fail.
Which would be how last Thursday I found myself in the best possible seat option right up until the last 2 minutes before the train left and some strange girl demanded that I move my legs and allow her to occupy the approximately 1sq ft of room across from me, while she coughed uncontrollably and unapologetically the entire ride home. Awesome. Saturday I really did sit next to a half rotting banana on a full-stop Caltrain, which was determined to be a step up from sharing a 4-seat combo with obviously smashed teenage girls. Oh, the humanity!
So much for the practical application of statistics... the price of gas will be dropping any day now, right?
